Event: Friday Seminar: "Historical Counterfactuals in Archaeological Reasoning"

Speaker: Dr. Derek Turner, Connecticut College

Over the last fifteen years or so, philosophers of science have made a lot of progress toward understanding how researchers in fields such as paleontology, geology, and archaeology re-construct the past. One neglected issue, however, is counter-factual reasoning. An historical counterfactual claim has the form: “If condition C had been different at some time in the past, then the downstream outcome O would have been differ-ent.” Counterfactual claims are closely related to the idea that history is contingent—an idea that Stephen Jay Gould made popular in paleontology with his famous thought experiment of replaying the tape of history. However, counterfactual rea-soning remains controversial among historians, some of whom see no value in speculating (for example) about how things would be different if Al Gore had won the presidential election in 2000. One major challenge is explaining what would count as evidence for or against counterfactuals. In this talk, the speaker will (1) provide an overview of some of the relevant philosophical work on the epistemology of historical counter-factuals, and (2) argue that counterfactual reasoning does have a legitimate, if limited role to play in archaeologists’ efforts to reconstruct the past.